French bets on “variables” help to bring a turn towards a two -state solution
In December of 2014, the Council of French Senate and Representatives voted on a “undisputed” resolution calling on the government to recognize the Palestinian state, which was announced in Algeria in 1988, but Francois Hollande, the President of the Socialist Republic at the time, and his foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, left the decision in the drawers.
For decades, the Paris policy is to call for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, according to the operative of the United Nations General Assembly’s decision of 1947, which decided to divide Palestine and the establishment of two Jewish and Palestinian states.
After Holland, Emmanuel Macron arrived at the Elysee Palace in 2017. From that date until weeks, Paris’s official position has confirmed the government’s intention to recognize the Palestinian state and “but at the appropriate time” so that it is “useful”, meaning that the situation moves towards a political solution.
Macron, last year, refused to take over four European countries, Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Norway, which decided to put an end to procrastination and, without further delay, made the recognition step preceded by two countries, Sweden and Cyprus. In total, 12 European countries, out of 27, belong to the European Union, recognize the Palestinian state.
Difficulties
However, the war continued on Gaza and the massacres in which Macron pushed his approach. Political sources say that the French president, who announced in an official message to the President of the Palestinian Authority, will officially recognize the state of Palestine on the occasion of a “summit” that will be held in New York on September 21 on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, believes that “it is necessary to move today before the two -state solution is built permanently” due to Israeli practices in Gaza, and also in the West Bank, where the settlement movement accelerates at an unprecedented pace and in a way that requires, In practice, on the possibility of this country.
Paris is aware of the difficulties facing the presidential step, even within France itself, as the parties that are the ruling coalition, which are “Al -Nahda”, “horizons”, “the democratic movement” and the traditional right -wing “Republic” party, did not provide any of its leaders to provide support for Macron, whom the constitution authorizes such an initiative.
On the outside, Paris, through direct contacts with the parties concerned mainly with its project, was aware of the radical rejection, whether from Israel or from the United States, for any conversation in this direction.
Sources told Asharq Al -Awsat that Macron informed Trump and Netanyahu of his steps before announcing it, as he consulted with it with the British Prime Minister and the German advisor.
There are also profound divisions on Israel within the European Union, which, after 60,000 dead in Gaza, failed and the Strip destroyed almost complete destruction that turned to what resembles the “open cemetery”, to take any practical action against Israel, and he was satisfied with promises that nothing has been achieved, even though the partnership agreement that entered into force since 2000 provides the union the ability to reconsider it based on the second item that connects its working hours with respect for human rights.
Political dynamic – diplomatic
Despite the foregoing, Paris is betting on the launch of a “political -diplomatic dynamic” from today until the date of the aforementioned summit that creates a “strong motivated stream” that restores the file of the two -state solution to the international interface.
According to French presidential sources, the “early” announcement of Macron’s decision aimed at “encouraging other parties, especially the hesitant European, to catch up with it and give it enough time to make its decision.”
French Foreign Minister Jean -Noel Barrow, in an interview with the French newspaper “La Tribon de Dimanche”, said that other European countries may be attached to France, led by Malta and Belgium and also potential for the Netherlands, as well as there are bets on Canada, Japan and South Korea.
As for Britain, despite the pressures against its Prime Minister, Kiir Starmer, it is still hesitant; While Germany hurried to announce its refusal to walk in the French passengers now.
On the other hand, Barrow indicates that his country is on this step, which is the first in the framework of the “Group of Seven”, and for a permanent member of the Security Council and a major player within the European Union, he would convince the Arab countries to condemn “Hamas” and demand their disarmament.
Paris hopes that the war in Gaza has stopped by September, which will change the atmosphere currently prevailing in the Middle East and the Arab world, so that the “balance” will achieve recognition on the one hand and take steps towards Israel by Arab and Islamic countries, so that the principle of “reciprocity” is done. “We will work in New York to launch an appeal to urge other countries to join us,” Barrow also said.
After Netanyahu
Paris is highly dependent on the “road map” that will be issued by the New York meeting, which it hopes to adopt by the United Nations General Assembly.
The importance of the “map” is that it includes an integrated vision of how to end the Palestinian -Israeli conflict because it provides elements and determinants of the two -state solution, even though it leaves the two parties negotiating major affairs such as the borders of the Palestinian state, the settlement file and the fate of Jerusalem.
But France is aware that the project that is going on is difficult, and the evidence for this is the Knesset vote, last week, on a law calling for the inclusion of the West Bank and the adoption of last year’s law that refuses to establish a Palestinian state.
Since Paris “cut hope” from changing the policy of the most right Netanyahu government or the coalition that keeps it in power, it is betting on a political change in Israel that may occur in the coming months or on the occasion of the legislative elections scheduled for September next year.
Paris considers that a change in Israeli public opinion is possible, especially since the Israeli offering today does not exceed the events of Gaza, while the “road map” provides a vision and a solution to the next day.
There are many questions raised about the feasibility of the process, and whether the recognition of France, and perhaps other European countries, would change the field reality, or to bring the date of the establishment of the Palestinian state, which has recognized more than 145 countries. But that will not prevent her shepherds from continuing with her and pushing her success.
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